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人工智能炒股量化交易分析股票可能被严重高估的7个原因

尽管美国股市已从历史高位大幅下跌,但高盛警告说:“标准普尔500指数的估值相对历史而言已经过高。” 这可能是轻描淡写的。高盛研究了标普500指数(SPX)的9个估值指标,发现其中7个指标的当前价值大大高于1976年以来的历史平均水平,如下表所示。该数据基于高盛的报告,该报告被适当命名为“投资地点。2019年美国股票展望:风险回报”。

7个价值警告标志


对投资者的意义
尽管截至12月7日为止,标准普尔500指数的价值已下跌1.5%,但高盛研究的9项指标中有7项现在的股票估值高于自1976年以来观察值的75%至98%。在一个度量标准的情况下-现金流量收益率,即现金流量与股票价格的比率-数字越低,则隐含估值越高。因此,自1976年以来,现金流收益率已超过现在的81%。

自标准普尔500指数于2009年3月问世以来, 当前的牛市已使美国股票价格几乎翻了三倍。随着投资者对未来公司收益增长的乐观情绪在此期间有所扩大,股票估值也随之增长。

CAPE比率在2018年吸引了看空观察员的特别注意,其中一些人认为 该比率标志着即将到来的市场崩溃。今年年初,它以标普500指数的第二高价开盘,高于1929年“大崩溃”之前的水平,仅超出了2000-02年互联网泡沫大崩溃之前的价值,正如Investopedia今年早些时候详细讨论的那样。 。CAPE分析使用前10年经通胀因素调整后的平均每股收益(EPS)得出股票估值。

正如另一份Investopedia报告中所讨论的那样, CAPE比率的制定者,耶鲁大学经济学罗伯特·席勒(Robert Shiller)诺贝尔奖获得者已经警告说,从长远来看,当前的市场估值是不可持续的。正如他在MarketWatch重新发表的论文中所写的那样,他特别担心“公众对公司收益缺乏健康的怀疑,以及缺乏将收益增加与瞬态因素联系在一起的流行叙述” 。

引起担忧的最大原因之一可能是美国股票市场总市值与GDP的比率,这一数据受到主要投资者沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的青睐。Investopedia早先的一篇文章称,尽管他显然没有就此事发表最新的公开评论,但该指标一直向其他投资者和市场观察者发出警告信号。同时,高盛的报告提出了2019年美国股票的三大风险,这使高估值股票更加脆弱。

未来3大风险


高盛发现,自1962年以来,有10%的美国10年期美国国债收益率每月发生20个基点(bps)或更高(向上或向下)的变化。高盛写道,在给定的月份中,如果基准利率为20个基点,那么标准普尔500指数就可以“消化”它。另一方面,当T-Note收益率跳升超过20 bps时,该指数通常会下降。

展望未来
根据他的CAPE比率分析,席勒在他的论文中写道“美国股票市场是世界上最昂贵的”。考虑到其他几项估值指标也远远超过近期历史的标准,再加上高盛提出的关键风险,投资者将做好准备,为股价进一步下跌的可能性做准备。如果席勒(Shiller)所说的“对公司收益的健康怀疑态度”开始在投资者心理中占主导地位,那么下降的幅度可能很大。

美捷财智是一家全球商业和金融新闻股票行情以及市场数据和分析探索交易方法的社交平台,提供证券交易数据、股票数据分析、市场行情分析、智能选股软件、量化交易以及区块链资讯等内容服务。

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[ Log time: 1618125462.8487 ] [ Expend time: 0.001755952835083 ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS `n` FROM `mt_posts_index` WHERE (((post_id IN (70,93,448,457,502,549,557,592,666,672,685,687,705,712,715,729,737,748,752,758,772,779,788,791,803,809,829,836,844,850,859,865,868,882,884,887,911,928,938,944,946,952,1028,1029,1061,1083,1094,1099,1100,1139,1142,1161,1162,1191,1200,1211,1217,1259,1266,1284,1293,1296,1302,1310,1354,143,192,314,354,523,620,753,909,930,1049,1118,1189,1273,1280,1289,208,230,293,265,281,284,285,287,292,296,299,301,315,316,327,344,374,376,384,388,392,394,395,429,442,447,449,459,461,462,463,466,470,472,495,503,505,509,524,527,535,544,545,556,558,560,562,580,588,589,595,599,604,610,621,622,625,628,631,633,634,637,638,649,652,661,667,669,670,673,677,688,691,700,706,708,711,716,717,739,744,747,749,750,763,764,777,785,786,789,796,797,798,813,814,820,823,825,826,831,832,842,845,854,855,857,860,862,863,866,869,870,873,874,881,889,891,896,897,900,901,902,905,906,910,912,913,914,915,916,917,919,921,925,929,933,936,939,940,945,948,949,950,951,953,954,955,956,960,964,966,970,972,975,978,979,983,984,987,988,989,990,992,993,994,995,1003,1007,1008,1009,1010,1011,1014,1017,1018,1019,1020,1022,1023,1030,1031,1033,1034,1035,1037,1038,1042,1046,1047,1048,1057,1058,1059,1062,1063,1064,1065,1067,1068,1069,1070,1071,1073,1074,1076,1086,1088,1089,1091,1097,1098,1104,1105,1106,1107,1108,1109,1110,1111,1113,1115,1117,1124,1125,1126,1128,1129,1130,1131,1133,1134,1135,1136,1140,1143,1144,1145,1146,1147,1149,1150,1151,1152,1154,1155,1156,1157,1158,1163,1164,1165,1167,1168,1169,1170,1173,1175,1176,1178,1179,1182,1184,1186,1187,1192,1193,1194,1195,1196,1197,1198,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1212,1213,1214,1215,1216,1218,1219,1221,1226,1228,1229,1230,1231,1235,1236,1237,1241,1242,1243,1244,1245,1247,1248,1249,1252,1254,1256,1258,1260,1263,1265,1268,1270,1271,1275,1277,1278,1281,1282,1285,1286,1288,1292,1295,1297,1298,1299,1301,1304,1305,1306,1307,1308,1309,1312,1313,1316,1319,1321,1322,1323,1324,1325,1327,1328,1331,1336,1343,1344,1347,1348,1349,1352,1353,1355,1356,219,220,335,369,415,613,806,827,924,963,967,1002,1041,1045,1077,1116,1185,1201,1224,1225,1232,1233,1262,1264,1267,1274,1276,1279,1287,1290,1294,1311,1314,1317,1318,1334,1335,1341,1342,1345,437,812,969,1006,1021,1052,1101,1148,1153,1255) AND post_type = 'article')) AND is_recommend = 1 AND is_del = 0)

[ Log time: 1618125462.8619 ] [ Expend time: 0.0014209747314453 ] SELECT `mt_topic_relation`.* FROM `mt_topic_relation` WHERE (item_id IN(301,93) AND `type` = 'article')

[ Log time: 1618125462.864 ] [ Expend time: 0.0016341209411621 ] SELECT `mt_topic`.* FROM `mt_topic` WHERE (topic_id IN(83,84,85,63,21,12,56,306,268,249,14,56))

[ Log time: 1618125462.8658 ] [ Expend time: 0.001349925994873 ] SELECT `mt_article`.* FROM `mt_article` WHERE (is_del = 0 and id IN(301,93))

[ Log time: 1618125462.8678 ] [ Expend time: 0.001662015914917 ] SELECT `mt_users`.* FROM `mt_users` WHERE (is_del = 0 and uid IN(30,12))

[ Log time: 1618125462.8692 ] [ Expend time: 0.00095105171203613 ] SELECT `mt_users_attrib`.* FROM `mt_users_attrib` WHERE (uid IN(12,30))


Cache

[ Log time: 1618125462.3486 ] Backend: File

[ Log time: 1618125462.3495 ] [ Expend time: 0.000849 ] Get Cache: crond, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618125462.3497 ] [ Expend time: 0.000151 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_half_minute, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.3499 ] [ Expend time: 0.000136 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_minute, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.35 ] [ Expend time: 0.000136 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_five_minutes, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.3502 ] [ Expend time: 0.000132 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_ten_minutes, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.351 ] [ Expend time: 0.000767 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_half_hour, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618125462.3518 ] [ Expend time: 0.000729 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_hour, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618125462.3525 ] [ Expend time: 0.000603 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_day, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618125462.3713 ] [ Expend time: 0.000693 ] Get Cache: nav_menu_list, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618125462.3846 ] [ Expend time: 0.000915 ] Get Cache: user_group_99, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618125462.4336 ] [ Expend time: 0.000258 ] Get Cache: db_rows_cache_39fec38047035e3b4cff30fe0158ec3a, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.4414 ] [ Expend time: 0.000208 ] Get Cache: question_related_list_760e875242eb277caada45e0c4f1fb5a_10, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.4621 ] [ Expend time: 0.003083 ] Save Cache: question_related_list_760e875242eb277caada45e0c4f1fb5a_10, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618125462.4623 ] [ Expend time: 0.000148 ] Get Cache: update_views_article_dbc944ca0d810bdb1947a9706bb5d1de_928, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.8014 ] [ Expend time: 0.339085 ] Save Cache: update_views_article_dbc944ca0d810bdb1947a9706bb5d1de_928, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618125462.8435 ] [ Expend time: 0.000261 ] Get Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_1a947852ec3307368fbad9677e3a84dc, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.8466 ] [ Expend time: 0.000198 ] Get Cache: db_rows_cache_e76d914f75b18c534c25a0aa9dbeef15, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.8517 ] [ Expend time: 0.002905 ] Save Cache: db_rows_cache_e76d914f75b18c534c25a0aa9dbeef15, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618125462.856 ] [ Expend time: 0.004210 ] Save Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_1a947852ec3307368fbad9677e3a84dc, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618125462.8562 ] [ Expend time: 0.000148 ] Get Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_found_rows_c5f3bbd2658b5364bbd2110b714b9db0, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618125462.8599 ] [ Expend time: 0.003555 ] Save Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_found_rows_c5f3bbd2658b5364bbd2110b714b9db0, result type: integer


Crond

[ Log time: 1618125462.351 ] Tag: half_hour, Last run time: 2021-04-11 14:48:54

[ Log time: 1618125462.3518 ] Tag: hour, Last run time: 2021-04-11 14:46:33

[ Log time: 1618125462.3525 ] Tag: day, Last run time: 2021-04-11 08:08:04


Escape time: 0.63827800750732, 54 queries, PHP Memory usage: 9227.6484375 KB, Server time: 2021-04-11 15:17:42