交易百科

贴现现金流量(DCF)

什么是贴现现金流量(DCF)?
贴现现金流量(DCF)是一种估值方法,用于根据其预期的未来现金流量估算投资的价值。DCF分析试图根据对未来将产生多少资金的预测来计算出今天的投资价值。这既适用于投资者的金融投资,也适用于希望对其业务进行更改(例如购买新设备)的企业主。
重要要点
现金流量折现(DCF)有助于根据投资的未来现金流量确定其价值。
预期未来现金流量的现值是通过使用折现率计算折现现金流量(DCF)得出的。
如果现金流量折现(DCF)高于当前投资成本,则该机会可能会带来正回报。
公司通常使用加权平均资本成本作为折现率,因为它考虑了股东期望的回报率。
DCF有局限性,主要是它依赖于对未来现金流量的估计,这可能会证明是不准确的。

现金流量折现如何运作
DCF分析的目的是估计投资者将从投资中获得的金钱,并根据金钱的时间价值进行调整。金钱的时间价值假设今天的一美元比明天的一美元价值更高,因为它可以被投资。因此,DCF分析适用于某人目前正在付款且期望将来会收到更多钱的任何情况。

例如,假设年利率为5%,则储蓄帐户中的$ 1.00每年将价值$ 1.05。同样,如果将1美元的付款延迟了一年,则它的现值为0.95美元,因为它不能放入您的储蓄帐户中以赚取利息。

DCF分析使用折现率找到预期未来现金流量的现值。投资者可以使用货币现值的概念来确定一项投资或项目的未来现金流量是否等于或大于初始投资的价值。如果通过DCF计算的价值高于当前投资成本,则应考虑机会。

为了进行DCF分析,投资者必须对未来现金流量以及投资,设备或其他资产的终值进行估计。投资者还必须为DCF模型确定合适的折现率,折现率将根据所考虑的项目或投资而变化,例如公司或投资者的风险状况以及资本市场的状况。如果投资者无法获得未来的现金流量,或者项目非常复杂,则DCF不会有太大价值,应采用替代模型。

现金流量折现公式
DCF的公式为:




现金流量折现示例
当公司希望分析是否应该投资某个项目或购买新设备时,通常会在评估DCF时使用其加权平均资本成本(WACC)作为折现率。WACC包含了公司股东在给定年份中期望的平均回报率。

您打算投资一个项目,而您公司的WACC为5%,因此您将使用5%作为折现率。初始投资为1100万美元,该项目将持续5年,预计每年的现金流量如下:
现金周转
年 现金周转
1个 100万美元
2 100万美元
3 400万美元
4 400万美元
5 600万美元
因此,该项目的折现现金流量为:
现金流折现
年 现金周转 现金流折现
1个 100万美元 $ 952,38 1
2 100万美元 $ 907,029
3 400万美元 $ 3,455,430
4 400万美元 $ 3,290,810
5 600万美元 $ 4,701,157
如果我们将所有折现现金流量加在一起,我们得到的价值为13306728美元。减去1,100万美元的初始投资,我们得到的净现值(NPV)为2,306,728美元。因为这是一个正数,所以今天的投资成本是值得的,因为该项目将产生高于初始成本的正折现现金流。如果该项目花费1400万美元,则净现值将为-693,272美元,这表明投资成本将不值得。

使用折现现金流的示例包括用于对股票进行估值的股息折扣模型,例如Gordon增长模型(GGM)。
现金流量折现的缺点
DCF的主要局限在于它需要做出许多假设。首先,投资者将必须正确估计投资或项目的未来现金流量。未来的现金流量将取决于多种因素,例如市场需求,经济状况,不可预见的障碍等等。
估计未来现金流量过高可能会导致选择未来可能无法获得回报的投资,从而损害利润。估计现金流量太低,使投资显得昂贵,可能会导致机会错失。为模型选择折现率也是一个假设,必须正确估计该模型才有价值。
经常问的问题
您如何计算现金流量折现(DCF)?
计算投资的DCF涉及三个基本步骤。首先,您预测投资的预期现金流量。其次,通常根据融资成本或替代投资所带来的机会成本来选择折现率。第三步,也是最后一步,就是使用财务计算器,电子表格或手动计算将预测的现金流量折现至当日。
DCF计算的示例是什么?
为了说明这一点,假设您的折现率为10%,并且投资机会在接下来的三年中每年产生$ 100。您的目标是计算当前现金流的价值,即“现值”。由于将来的钱比今天的钱少,因此您可以将这些现金流的现值减去10%的折现率。具体来说,第一年的现金流量今天价值90.91美元,第二年的现金流量今天价值82.64美元,第三年的现金流量今天价值75.13美元。将这三个现金流量加起来,得出的结论是该投资的DCF为248.68美元。
DCF是否等于净现值(NPV)?
不,DCF与NPV不同,尽管两者是封闭的相关概念。本质上,NPV在DCF计算过程中增加了第四步。在预测预期现金流量,选择折现率并折现这些现金流量之后,NPV随后从投资的DCF中扣除投资的前期成本。例如,如果在上面的示例中购买该投资的成本为200美元,则该投资的净现值将为248.68美元减去200美元(即48.68美元)。

美捷财智是一家全球商业和金融新闻股票行情以及市场数据和分析探索交易方法的社交平台,提供证券交易数据、股票数据分析、市场行情分析、智能选股软件、量化交易以及区块链资讯等内容服务。  

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