交易百科

股票交易数据分析:一月效应

一月效应是什么?
一月效应是一月份股票价格的季节性季节性上升。分析师通常将这种反弹归因于购买量的增加,这是由于价格下降通常发生在十二月,当时投资者从事税收减免以抵消已实现的资本收益,导致抛售。


另一个可能的解释是,投资者在下个月使用年终现金奖金购买投资。尽管过去已经发现了这种市场异常现象,但是随着人们对它的了解,一月效应似乎已基本消失。

重要要点
-一月效应是当月股票上涨的季节趋势。
-从1928年到2018年,标准普尔500指数在一月份的涨幅为62%(是91倍的56倍)。
-从理论上讲,一月效应发生在投资者出售获胜者以在12月产生年终资本利得税,并利用这些资金投机于表现较弱的投资者时。
-像其他市场异常和日历效应一样,一月份效应被某些人认为是有效市场假说的证据。

了解一月效应
一月效应是一个假设,并且像所有与日历相关的效应一样,表明市场整体上效率低下,因为有效的市场自然会使这种效应不存在。一月效应似乎比中型或大型股对小盘股的影响更大,因为它们的流动性较小。

自20世纪初以来,数据表明这些资产类别在1月份的表现优于整体市场,尤其是在本月中旬。投资银行家西德尼·瓦赫特尔(Sidney Wachtel)最早在1942年注意到了这种影响。但是,由于市场似乎已经对其进行了调整,因此这种历史趋势在最近几年并不那么明显。

分析师认为,从2018年开始,“一月效应”不太重要的另一个原因是,越来越多的人使用了避税的退休计划,因此没有理由在年底出售税损。

一月效应说明
除了税收损失和回购,以及将现金红利投入市场之外,对“一月效应”的另一种解释还与投资者的心理有关。一些投资者认为,一月份是开始投资计划的最佳月份,或者正遵循新年的决议,开始为未来进行投资。

另一些人则表示,共同基金经理在年底购买了表现最好的股票,并在其年终报告中为表象缘故消除了可疑的损失者,这项活动被称为“橱窗装饰”。但是,这不太可能,因为买卖将主要影响大盘股。

其他支持个人出于税收目的而出售的想法的证据包括D'Mello,Ferris和Hwang(2003)的一项研究,该研究发现,在年底之前遭受严重资本损失的股票的出售增加了,年初后的资本收益。此外,资本损失较大的股票的交易规模在年底之前趋于减小,而资本收益的增加则在年初之后趋于减小。

年末抛售也吸引了对较低价格感兴趣的买家,因为他们知道跌幅并非基于公司基本面。大规模地推高一月份的价格。

研究与批评
一项研究分析了1904年至1974年的数据,得出的结论是,一月份股票的平均收益是该年其他月份的五倍,尤其要注意的是这种趋势存在于小资本股中。投资公司所罗门·史密斯·巴尼(Salomon Smith Barney)进行了一项研究,分析了1972年至2002年的数据,发现1月份Russell 2000指数的股票表现优于Russell 1000指数的股票(小型股与大型股)。

表现优于市场平均水平0.82%,但这些股票在今年剩余时间内表现不佳。数据表明,一月份效应正变得越来越不突出。

先锋集团前董事伯顿·马尔基尔(Burton Malkiel)曾批评“一月效应”,指出一季度的季节性异常并不能为投资者提供任何可靠的机会。他还建议,“一月效应”是如此之小,以至于利用该效应所需的交易成本实质上使其无利可图。还建议现在有太多的人来参加“一月效应”活动,以至于它被定价到市场中,从而将其全部抵消。

美捷财智是一家全球商业和金融新闻股票行情以及市场数据和分析探索交易方法的社交平台,提供证券交易数据、股票数据分析、市场行情分析、智能选股软件、量化交易以及区块链资讯等内容服务。

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[ Log time: 1618123265.9515 ] [ Expend time: 0.0035099983215332 ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS `n` FROM `mt_posts_index` WHERE (((post_id IN (22,21,65,66,168,169,172,173,174,175,176,177,178,179,180,181,182,189,190,191,192,193,197,218,222,223,224,226,228,229,230,232,234,239,241,248,253,258,259,279,280,278,281,290,286,288,289,291,292,297,299,300,301,314,327,333,335,336,339,338,340,343,346,351,355,356,357,368,370,376,377,379,380,381,382,384,387,389,390,391,392,397,402,403,404,415,416,417,419,427,447,460,466,467,468,471,475,498,499,501,502,508,514,516,517,519,522,523,528,529,533,537,542,543,545,546,548,556,557,558,559,560,561,565,567,574,575,576,577,580,581,582,587,591,600,602,603,604,607,608,611,613,614,615,616,617,618,619,621,626,627,629,630,631,634,635,639,641,643,646,647,653,655,657,660,663,665,666,674,678,679,680,681,682,685,686,687,692,694,695,696,698,699,701,705,709,715,716,717,719,720,722,724,725,727,728,731,735,737,738,740,741,742,743,749,751,752,753,755,757,758,759,760,762,764,765,769,770,771,773,774,775,778,779,780,781,782,785,786,790,795,798,801,804,806,807,808,810,811,812,813,814,818,819,820,822,824,825,828,829,832,835,839,840,842,843,844,846,848,850,851,853,855,858,859,863,867,868,874,875,876,878,879,882,884,885,886,888,890,891,897,899,907,908,910,911,915,918,919,922,923,926,929,930,931,932,934,935,936,938,946,947,950,954,955,956,958,961,962,963,964,965,966,967,969,970,971,975,976,977,981,982,984,985,986,989,992,993,994,996,1000,1001,1002,1003,1004,1005,1006,1007,1008,1009,1012,1014,1015,1016,1017,1019,1020,1021,1022,1024,1025,1026,1027,1030,1031,1032,1033,1035,1036,1037,1039,1041,1042,1044,1046,1047,1048,1049,1051,1052,1053,1055,1056,1059,1060,1061,1065,1069,1071,1072,1074,1075,1078,1079,1082,1084,1085,1086,1087,1088,1094,1095,1098,1099,1102,1104,1106,1112,1115,1117,1124,1125,1126,1127,1128,1130,1131,1132,1134,1135,1141,1142,1143,1145,1147,1149,1150,1152,1153,1154,1155,1156,1158,1160,1162,1163,1164,1165,1167,1168,1169,1170,1171,1173,1174,1177,1180,1182,1184,1186,1188,1190,1191,1192,1194,1195,1196,1197,1198,1199,1200,1201,1202,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1210,1211,1212,1215,1216,1219,1220,1221,1223,1225,1231,1233,1234,1235,1238,1240,1241,1243,1244,1248,1249,1254,1255,1258,1259,1260,1262,1264,1265,1266,1267,1268,1269,1270,1272,1273,1274,1276,1277,1278,1279,1280,1281,1282,1285,1286,1287,1288,1290,1291,1293,1295,1296,1297,1300,1301,1304,1306,1307,1308,1309,1310,1311,1312,1313,1314,1317,1319,1321,1324,1325,1327,1328,1329,1334,1336,1341,1342,1343,129,413,414,430,432,433,435,437,225,231,236,242,243,244,246,252,255,260,284,285,287,270,294,233,304,337,344,347,365,386,388,395,396,418,420,431,434,436,449,456,457,459,461,478,503,507,511,518,520,521,525,527,534,544,568,596,605,628,659,706,744,761,783,809,873,880,881,902,903,916,917,939,1034,1105,1113,1119,1121,1123,1161,1175,1214,1229,1352,205,209,319,332,359,409,462,472,496,497,513,515,531,562,564,566,573,594,595,599,601,606,625,645,658,670,799,838,889,904,921,943,949,1109,1183,1315,1323,1351) AND post_type = 'article') OR (post_id IN (17) AND post_type = 'question')) AND is_recommend = 1 AND is_del = 0)

[ Log time: 1618123265.9731 ] [ Expend time: 0.0025911331176758 ] SELECT `mt_topic_relation`.* FROM `mt_topic_relation` WHERE (item_id IN(304,301,300,65) AND `type` = 'article')

[ Log time: 1618123265.9763 ] [ Expend time: 0.0024490356445312 ] SELECT `mt_topic`.* FROM `mt_topic` WHERE (topic_id IN(56,14,57,21,309,14,306,268,249,14,56,306,196,104))

[ Log time: 1618123265.9795 ] [ Expend time: 0.0024628639221191 ] SELECT `mt_article`.* FROM `mt_article` WHERE (is_del = 0 and id IN(304,301,300,65))

[ Log time: 1618123265.9834 ] [ Expend time: 0.0031819343566895 ] SELECT `mt_users`.* FROM `mt_users` WHERE (is_del = 0 and uid IN(34,30,29,26))

[ Log time: 1618123265.9859 ] [ Expend time: 0.0018260478973389 ] SELECT `mt_users_attrib`.* FROM `mt_users_attrib` WHERE (uid IN(26,29,30,34))


Cache

[ Log time: 1618123265.7158 ] Backend: File

[ Log time: 1618123265.7177 ] [ Expend time: 0.001824 ] Get Cache: crond, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123265.7181 ] [ Expend time: 0.000295 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_half_minute, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.7184 ] [ Expend time: 0.000243 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_minute, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.7187 ] [ Expend time: 0.000247 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_five_minutes, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.719 ] [ Expend time: 0.000243 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_ten_minutes, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.7193 ] [ Expend time: 0.000243 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_half_hour, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.7197 ] [ Expend time: 0.000244 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_hour, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.7214 ] [ Expend time: 0.001647 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_day, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618123265.7522 ] [ Expend time: 0.001305 ] Get Cache: nav_menu_list, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123265.7745 ] [ Expend time: 0.001618 ] Get Cache: user_group_99, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123265.85 ] [ Expend time: 0.000406 ] Get Cache: db_rows_cache_5282de12b0eaf8fb7996ad4119421505, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.8616 ] [ Expend time: 0.000314 ] Get Cache: question_related_list_2b62c9342383d275c4182ef3888aa517_10, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.8836 ] [ Expend time: 0.004282 ] Save Cache: question_related_list_2b62c9342383d275c4182ef3888aa517_10, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123265.8839 ] [ Expend time: 0.000218 ] Get Cache: update_views_article_310865b413e42aff3d78858d8934a133_516, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.8879 ] [ Expend time: 0.003889 ] Save Cache: update_views_article_310865b413e42aff3d78858d8934a133_516, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618123265.9415 ] [ Expend time: 0.000424 ] Get Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_2356834fa7b997fad4671712d796b48d, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.9474 ] [ Expend time: 0.000364 ] Get Cache: db_rows_cache_a725ec7589b73023b15a381e09fbfee2, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.958 ] [ Expend time: 0.006381 ] Save Cache: db_rows_cache_a725ec7589b73023b15a381e09fbfee2, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618123265.9633 ] [ Expend time: 0.005148 ] Save Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_2356834fa7b997fad4671712d796b48d, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123265.9636 ] [ Expend time: 0.000241 ] Get Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_found_rows_7872b7425035ba6be46db8c2ec21c6a0, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123265.9694 ] [ Expend time: 0.005660 ] Save Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_found_rows_7872b7425035ba6be46db8c2ec21c6a0, result type: integer


Crond

[ Log time: 1618123265.7214 ] Tag: day, Last run time: 2021-04-11 08:08:04


Escape time: 0.45214009284973, 50 queries, PHP Memory usage: 9080.3984375 KB, Server time: 2021-04-11 14:41:05