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股票估值方法(How to Choose the Best Stock Valuation Method)

在决定首次使用哪种估值方法对股票进行估值时,很容易被投资者可用的估值技术所淹没。有些估值方法相当简单,而另一些则涉及更多和复杂。

不幸的是,没有一种方法最适合每种情况。每个股票都不同,每个行业或行业都有独特的特征,可能需要多种评估方法。在本文中,我们将探讨最常见的评估方法以及何时使用它们。



重要要点
有几种评估公司或其股票的方法,每种方法各有优缺点。
一些模型试图根据公司自身的财务报表和项目来确定公司的内在价值,而其他模型则寻求相对于同行的相对估值。
对于支付股息的公司,像戈登增长模型这样的折扣模型通常很简单并且相当可靠-但是许多公司不支付股息。
通常,可以采用倍数方法对公司在市场上的价值与竞争对手或更广阔的市场进行比较评估。
选择一种估值方法时,请确保该方法适用于您正在分析的公司,并且如果合适,可以使用多个方法来得出更好的估计值。

如何选择最佳的股票估值方法
两类评估模型
估值方法通常分为两大类:绝对估值和相对估值。
绝对估值
绝对 估值模型 试图仅基于基本原理来找到投资的内在或“真实”价值。仅仅看基本面意味着您只关注诸如股息,现金流量和单个公司的增长率之类的事情,而不必担心任何其他公司。属于此类别的估值模型包括股息折扣模型,现金流量折现模型,剩余收益模型和基于资产的模型。
相对估值
相对估值模型,相比之下,该公司在问题比较其他同类公司运作。这些方法涉及计算倍数和比率(例如市盈率),并将其与同类公司的倍数进行比较。例如,如果公司的市盈率低于可比公司的市盈率,则原始公司可能会被低估。通常,相对估值模型比绝对估值模型更容易,更快捷地计算,这就是为什么许多投资者和分析师都开始使用此模型进行分析的原因。

让我们看一下可供投资者使用的一些更流行的估值方法,并查看何时适合使用每种模型。



股息折扣模型(DDM)
该股息贴现模型(DDM)是最基本的绝对估值模型中的一个。股利折价模型基于公司向股东支付的股利来计算公司的“真实”价值。使用股息对公司进行估值的理由是,股息代表流向股东的实际现金流量,因此,对这些现金流量的现值进行估值应该为您提供股票价值的价值。

第一步是确定公司是否支付股息。

第二步是确定股息是否稳定且可预测, 因为仅公司支付股息是不够的。支付稳定和可预见股息的公司通常是成熟行业中成熟的蓝筹公司。这些类型的公司通常最适合DDM评估模型。例如,检查以下公司XYZ的股息和收益,并确定DDM模型是否适合该公司:
2015年 2016年 2017年 2018年 2019年 2020年
每股股息 $ 0.50 $ 0.53 $ 0.55 $ 0.58 $ 0.61 $ 0.64
每股收益 $ 4.00 $ 4.20 $ 4.41 $ 4.63 $ 4.86 $ 5.11

在上面的示例中,每股收益(EPS)始终以5%的平均速度增长,股息也以相同的速度增长。该公司的股息与其盈利趋势相吻合,这将使预测未来期间的股息变得容易。另外,您应该检查支出比率,以确保比率是一致的。在这种情况下,整个六年的比率为0.125,这使该公司成为股息折扣模型的理想选择。

在戈登增长模型(GGM)被广泛用于确定基于未来一系列生长在一个恒定的速率分红的股票的内在价值。它是股息折现模式(DDM)的流行且直接的变体。

现金流量折现模型(DCF)
如果公司不支付股息或其股息模式不正常怎么办?在这种情况下,请继续检查公司是否符合使用 折现现金流(DCF)模型的条件。DCF模型不考虑股息,而是使用公司的折现未来现金流量来评估业务。这种方法的最大优点是,它可以用于不支付股息的各种公司,甚至可以用于支付股息的公司,例如上例中的XYZ公司。

DCF模型具有多个变体,但最常用的形式是“两阶段DCF”模型。在这种变化中,自由现金流通常被预测为5到10年,然后计算终值以考虑超出预测期的所有现金流。使用此模型的第一个要求是公司拥有正的和可预测的自由现金流。仅根据此要求,您将发现许多小型高成长公司和非成熟公司由于这些公司通常会遇到的大量资本支出而被排除在外。

例如,让我们看一下以下公司的现金流量:

2015年 2016年 2017年 2018年 2019年 2020年
经营性现金流 438 789 1462 890 2565 510
资本支出 785 995 1132 1256 2235 1546
自由现金流 -347 -206 330 -366 330 -1036
在此快照中,该公司产生了正增长的正经营现金流,这是很好的。但是,从大量的资本支出中您可以看到,该公司仍在将其大量现金返还给业务以发展。结果,该公司在六年中的四年中有负的自由现金流,这使得预测未来五至十年的现金流变得极为困难或几乎不可能。

为了最有效地使用DCF模型,目标公司通常应具有稳定,积极且可预测的自由现金流。拥有适合DCF模型的理想现金流量的公司通常 是已超过增长阶段的成熟公司。

贴现现金流量(DCF)
可比模型
最后一种模型是一种通用模型,如果您无法使用其他任何一种模型对公司进行估值,或者如果您根本不想花费时间来计算数字,则可以使用最后一种模型。该模型不会像前两个估值模型那样尝试查找股票的内在价值。相反,它会将股票的价格倍数与基准进行比较,以确定股票是相对被低估还是被高估了。这样做的理由是基于“一个价格定律”,该定律指出两个相似的资产应以相似的价格出售。此模型的直观性质是其如此受欢迎的原因之一。
几乎在所有情况下都可以使用可比模型的原因是由于可以使用大量的倍数,例如市盈率(P / E),市盈率(P / B) ,价格对销售(P / S),价格对现金流(P / CF)等。在这些比率中,P / E比率是最常用的,因为它关注公司的收益,这是投资价值的主要驱动力之一。

什么时候可以使用市盈率进行比较?如果公司是公开交易的,通常可以使用它,因为您既需要股票价格,也需要公司的收入。其次,该公司应该产生正收益,因为使用负P / E倍数进行比较将毫无意义。最后,收益质量应该很高。就是说,收入不应太不稳定,管理层所采用的会计惯例也不应大幅扭曲报告的收入。

这些只是投资者选择使用哪个比率或倍数时应考虑的一些主要标准。如果无法使用P / E倍数,请选择其他比率,例如价格对销售比率或价格对现金流比率。
底线
没有一个单一的评估模型可以适合所有情况,但是通过了解公司的特征,您可以选择最适合该情况的评估模型。此外,投资者不仅限于使用一种模型。通常,投资者会进行几次估值以创建一系列可能的值,或者将所有估值平均为一个。在进行库存分析时,有时不是要找到适合该工作的工具,而是要使用多少工具来从数字中获得不同的见解。

美捷财智是一家全球商业和金融新闻股票行情以及市场数据和分析探索交易方法的社交平台,提供证券交易数据、股票数据分析、市场行情分析、智能选股软件、量化交易以及区块链资讯等内容服务。  

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[ Log time: 1618123399.0697 ] [ Expend time: 0.0023648738861084 ] SELECT COUNT(*) AS `n` FROM `mt_posts_index` WHERE (((post_id IN (129,413,414,430,432,433,435,437,516,679,1035,506,609,610,611,620,662,677,678,681,689,697,728,737,740,748,751,758,761,765,766,772,775,779,791,798,803,812,813,814,820,821,822,823,824,826,828,831,834,837,838,840,843,844,845,849,850,861,864,873,874,881,882,883,886,898,908,921,924,933,936,950,956,961,971,974,1018,1034,1036,1037,1039,1040,1051,1052,1055,1060,1064,1082,1087,1089,1095,1098,1109,1112,1116,1118,1126,1131,1140,1141,1148,1151,1156,1157,1174,1182,1184,1187,1190,1194,1198,1201,1217,1218,1219,1223,1234,1256,1258,1264,1272,1273,1282,1290,1313,1320,1345,1353,785,928,929,930,969,1006,1021,1061,1101,1153,1226,1236,1255,1280,1347) AND post_type = 'article')) AND is_recommend = 1 AND is_del = 0)


Cache

[ Log time: 1618123398.7988 ] Backend: File

[ Log time: 1618123398.7998 ] [ Expend time: 0.000926 ] Get Cache: crond, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123398.8 ] [ Expend time: 0.000156 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_half_minute, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.8002 ] [ Expend time: 0.000145 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_minute, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.8003 ] [ Expend time: 0.000144 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_five_minutes, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.8005 ] [ Expend time: 0.000142 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_ten_minutes, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.8007 ] [ Expend time: 0.000173 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_half_hour, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.8009 ] [ Expend time: 0.000145 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_hour, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.802 ] [ Expend time: 0.001010 ] Get Cache: crond_timer_day, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618123398.822 ] [ Expend time: 0.000515 ] Get Cache: nav_menu_list, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.8299 ] [ Expend time: 0.001078 ] Get Cache: nav_menu, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.836 ] [ Expend time: 0.005979 ] Save Cache: mdzytyzlligspib_group_nav_menu, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123398.836 ] [ Expend time: 0.011931 ] Save Cache: nav_menu_list, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123398.8661 ] [ Expend time: 0.001890 ] Get Cache: user_group_99, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123398.9706 ] [ Expend time: 0.000408 ] Get Cache: db_rows_cache_37a9e48fe85c2a8b5a4cec4428087b15, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123398.9851 ] [ Expend time: 0.000328 ] Get Cache: question_related_list_d3f74514ee295f8d2c103c10eac992a3_10, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123399.0154 ] [ Expend time: 0.005044 ] Save Cache: question_related_list_d3f74514ee295f8d2c103c10eac992a3_10, result type: array

[ Log time: 1618123399.0158 ] [ Expend time: 0.000265 ] Get Cache: update_views_article_d7cc1fbdf193fc734e8e78436225d04a_437, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123399.0202 ] [ Expend time: 0.004376 ] Save Cache: update_views_article_d7cc1fbdf193fc734e8e78436225d04a_437, result type: integer

[ Log time: 1618123399.0627 ] [ Expend time: 0.000440 ] Get Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_629d6abadda8492c10cb905acec5dac7, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123399.0668 ] [ Expend time: 0.000326 ] Get Cache: db_rows_cache_c1ee6a7cfa83b6fc5ed0bd6db8dc678d, result type: boolean

[ Log time: 1618123399.0701 ] [ Expend time: 0.000315 ] Get Cache: posts_list_by_topic_ids_found_rows_555c79b931dc005586d15d48ba583cad, result type: boolean


Crond

[ Log time: 1618123398.802 ] Tag: day, Last run time: 2021-04-11 08:08:04


Escape time: 0.39533305168152, 42 queries, PHP Memory usage: 8980.71875 KB, Server time: 2021-04-11 14:43:18