交易百科

自下而上的投资(Bottom-Up Investing)

什么是自下而上的投资?
自下而上的投资是一种投资方法,其重点在于对单个股票的分析,而不再强调宏观经济周期和市场周期的重要性。在自下而上的投资中,投资者将注意力集中在特定的公司及其基础上,而不是在该公司所经营的行业或整个经济中。这种方法假设单个公司即使在表现不佳的行业中也能表现出色,至少是相对而言。



自下而上的投资迫使投资者首先考虑微观经济因素。这些因素包括公司的整体财务状况,财务报表分析,提供的产品和服务,供需情况以及公司绩效的其他各个指标。例如,公司独特的营销策略或组织结构可能是导致自下而上的投资者进行投资的领先指标。或者,特定公司财务报表上的会计违规行为可能表明该公司在蓬勃发展的行业中存在问题。

重要要点
自下而上的投资是一种投资方法,其重点在于对单个股票的分析,而不再强调宏观经济周期和市场周期的重要性。
在自下而上的投资中,投资者将注意力集中在特定的公司及其基础上,而不是首先关注行业组或更大的经济体的自上而下的投资。
自下而上的方法假设,即使在业绩不佳的行业中,至少在相对基础上,个别公司也能表现出色。

自下而上的投资

自下而上的投资方式
自下而上的方法与自上而下的投资相反,后者是一种在制定投资决策时首先考虑宏观经济因素的策略。自上而下的投资者会着眼于经济的广泛表现,然后寻找表现良好的行业,投资该行业内的最佳机会。相反,基于自下而上的投资策略做出正确的决策,则需要选择一家公司并在投资前对其进行彻底的审查。这包括熟悉公司的公共研究报告。

在大多数情况下,自下而上的投资不会在单个公司层面上停止,尽管这是开始分析和给予最大权重的维度。依次将行业组,经济部门,市场和宏观经济因素纳入整体分析,但要从底部开始,然后逐步扩大规模。

自下而上的投资者通常是那些采用长期购买和持有策略的投资者,这些策略强烈依赖于基本面分析。这是由于以下事实:自下而上的投资方法使投资者对单个公司及其股票有深刻的了解,从而洞察了投资的长期增长潜力。另一方面,自上而下的投资者在其投资策略上可能会更具机会,并可能寻求迅速进入和退出头寸以从短期市场波动中获利。

自下而上的投资者在对自己积极使用并从基础上了解的公司进行投资时,可能会最成功。像Facebook,Google和Tesla这样的公司都是这种想法的很好的例子,因为每个公司都有一个众所周知的消费产品,可以每天使用。当投资者从下至上的角度看一家公司时,他首先会从与现实世界中的消费者相关性的角度来固有地理解其价值。

自下而上方法的示例
Facebook(NYSE:FB)是自下而上方法的良好潜在候选人,因为投资者可以直观地很好地了解其产品和服务。一旦将诸如Facebook之类的候选人确定为“好”公司,投资者就会对其管理和组织结构,财务报表,营销工作和每股价格进行深入研究。这将包括计算公司的财务比率,分析这些数字随时间的变化以及预测未来的增长。

接下来,分析师将自己从单个公司中拿出来,将Facebook的财务状况与其竞争对手以及社交媒体和互联网行业中同行的财务状况进行比较。这样做可以显示Facebook是否与同行脱颖而出,或者是否显示其他人没有的异常现象。下一步是相对地将Facebook与更大范围的技术公司进行比较。之后,考虑一般市场条件,例如Facebook的市盈率是否符合S&P 500标准,或者股市是否处于一般牛市中。最后,决策中包括宏观经济数据,着眼于失业,通货膨胀,利率,GDP增长等趋势。
一旦将所有这些因素都纳入了投资者的决定中(从下至上),便可以做出交易决定。

谁从自下而上的投资中受益?
自下而上与自上而下的投资
如我们所见,自下而上的投资始于单个公司的财务状况,然后增加了越来越多的宏观分析层次。与此相反,自上而下的投资将首先检查各种宏观经济因素,看看这些因素会如何影响整个市场,因此,他们有兴趣在中国投资股票,他们将分析 国内生产总值(GDP) ,降低或提高 利率, 通货膨胀 和商品价格, 看看股市在哪里 可能会前进。他们还将研究股票所处的整个行业或行业的表现。这些投资者认为,如果该行业表现良好,则有机会,他们正在研究的股票也将表现良好并带来回报。这些投资者可能会研究诸如石油或商品价格上涨或利率变化之类的外部因素将如何影响某些行业,从而影响这些行业的公司。

例如,如果石油等商品的价格上涨并且他们正在考虑投资的公司使用大量的石油来生产其产品,则投资者将考虑石油价格上涨对石油价格的影响有多大。公司的利润。因此,他们的方法从很宽泛的角度出发,先看宏观经济,再看行业,再看 股票本身。自上而下的投资者也可能选择在一个国家或地区进行投资,前提是其经济状况良好。例如,如果欧洲股市步履蹒跚,则该投资者将置身于欧洲之外,反而可能将资金注入亚洲股市。地区正在显示快速增长。

自下而上的投资者将研究公司的基本面,以决定是否投资。另一方面,自上而下的投资者在选择股票作为投资组合时会考虑到更广泛的市场和经济状况。

美捷财智是一家全球商业和金融新闻股票行情以及市场数据和分析探索交易方法的社交平台,提供证券交易数据、股票数据分析、市场行情分析、智能选股软件、量化交易以及区块链资讯等内容服务。  

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Crond

[ Log time: 1618124199.3293 ] Tag: half_hour, Last run time: 2021-04-11 14:48:54

[ Log time: 1618124199.3305 ] Tag: hour, Last run time: 2021-04-11 14:46:33

[ Log time: 1618124199.3317 ] Tag: day, Last run time: 2021-04-11 08:08:04


Escape time: 0.32214999198914, 45 queries, PHP Memory usage: 8986.71875 KB, Server time: 2021-04-11 14:56:39